(Reprinted from the August/September 2011 issue of the CGS Communicator)

While the primary focus of the CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey is on the participation of international students in U.S. graduate education, this year’s Phase II survey also asked institutions to respond to two questions about prospective U.S. citizen and permanent resident graduate students. In the first question, institutions were asked to provide the number of applications for graduate programs received from U.S. citizens and permanent residents for fall 2010 and fall 2011. In the second question, institutions were asked to provide the number of offers of admission for graduate programs granted to U.S. citizens and permanent residents for fall 2010 and fall 2011, as of June 5^th or the same data each year. This article presents an analysis of the findings from these two questions.

The survey population for the 2011 CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey, Phase II: Final Applications and Initial Offers of Admission consisted of all 493 U.S. colleges and universities that were members of CGS as of May 2011. A link to the survey instrument was e-mailed to the graduate dean (or equivalent) at each member institution on June 8, 2011 and responses were collected electronically through July 31, 2011.

Applications from U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents

A total of 234 institutions provided data on applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents for fall 2010 and fall 2011 (Council of Graduate Schools, 2011). Of those institutions, 170 (73%) were public institutions, 63 (27%) were private, not-for-profit institutions, and one was a private, for-profit institution. By Carnegie classification, 171 (73%) of the respondents were doctoral institutions, 50 (21%) were master’s-focused institutions, and 13 (6%) were institutions classified as baccalaureate or specialized. By geographic region, 65 (28%) of the responding institutions are located in the Midwest, 43 (18%) in the Northeast, 40 (17%) in the West, and 86 (37%) in the South. Respondents to the question included 71 of the 100 largest institutions in terms of the number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents (National Science Foundation, 2011). The 234 responding institutions conferred about 40% of all graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents in the United States in 2008-09.  

Overall, applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 2% between fall 2010 and fall 2011 (see Table 1). Of the 234 institutions that provided data for both 2010 and 2011, 125 (53%) reported a decrease in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents for fall 2011, with an average decline of 8% at these institutions. At the 108 institutions (46%) reporting an increase, the average gain in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents was 6%. One institution reported no change in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents between 2010 and 2011.

The change in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents varied minimally by the number of graduate degrees awarded. At the 71 responding institutions that are among the 100 largest in terms of the total number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 3%, while at the 163 responding institutions outside the largest 100, applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 2%.

Applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 3% in fall 2011 at public institutions, slightly more than the 2% drop at private, not-for-profit institutions. Doctoral institutions reported a 2% decrease in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents, while master’s-focused institutions reported a 4% drop. Decreases in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents occurred in all four geographic regions of the United States, with the largest decreases in institutions located in the South and the West (both -3%), followed by the Midwest (-2%) and the Northeast (-1%).

Offers of Admission to U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents

A total of 230 institutions provided data on offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents for fall 2010 and fall 2011 (Council of Graduate Schools, 2011). Of those institutions, 167 (73%) were public institutions, 62 (27%) were private, not-for-profit institutions, and one was a private, for-profit institution. By Carnegie classification, 169 (73%) of the respondents were doctoral institutions, 49 (21%) were master’s-focused institutions, and 12 (5%) were institutions classified as baccalaureate or specialized. By geographic region, 63 (27%) of the responding institutions are located in the Midwest, 42 (18%) in the Northeast, 39 (17%) in the West, and 86 (37%) in the South. Respondents to the question included 71 of the 100 largest institutions in terms of the number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents (National Science Foundation, 2011).  

Overall, offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 3% between fall 2010 and fall 2011 (see Table 1). Of the 230 institutions that provided data for both 2010 and 2011, 132 (57%) reported a decrease in offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents for fall 2011, with an average decline of 11% at these institutions. At the 98 institutions (43%) reporting an increase, the average gain in offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents was 9%.

The decrease in offers of admission was greater at institutions awarding smaller numbers of graduate degrees to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. At the 71 responding institutions that are among the 100 largest in terms of the total number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 1%, while at the 159 responding institutions outside the largest 100, offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 7%.

Offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents fell 4% in fall 2011 at public institutions, a larger decrease than the 1% drop at private, not-for-profit institutions. Doctoral institutions reported a 3% decrease in offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, similar to the 4% drop at master’s-focused institutions. Offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents remained flat at institutions located in the West, and declined in the South (-6%), the Northeast (-3%), and the Midwest (-2%).

Discussion

The findings for U.S. citizens and permanent residents in the Phase II survey are in stark contrast to those for international students. The 2% decline in applications from U.S. citizens and permanent residents compares with an 11% increase in international applications for fall 2011 (Bell, 2011). Similarly, the 3% decline in offers of admission to U.S. citizens and permanent residents compares with an 11% increase in international offers of admission for fall 2011.

While there are different trends for domestic and international students, the data do not necessarily indicate that international students are being admitted in lieu of domestic students. Since the increase in international offers of admission (+11%) mirrors the increase in international applications (+11%), and the decrease in domestic offers of admission (-3%) mirrors the decrease in domestic applications (-2%), the changes in offers of admission may simply be a reflection of the changes that occurred in application volumes.

Two important caveats need to be considered in the interpretation of these data. First, the figures for U.S. citizens and permanent residents may not be as final as those for international students. Some colleges and universities continue to admit students throughout the summer, particularly for master’s-level programs. Given the time it takes to secure a visa, international students are less likely to apply at this late stage than are domestic students, so it is possible that the final figures for U.S. citizens and permanent residents might differ from those presented here.  Second, it is possible that the data may not be representative of all institutions in the United States. While the survey respondents award about 40% of all graduate degrees to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, trends may differ at institutions that did not respond to the survey. This non-response bias is especially important to consider since the data on U.S. citizens and permanent residents were collected as part of the CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey. Institutions with small numbers of international students—particularly master’s-focused institutions—may have been less likely to respond to the survey.

The survey is not able to shed light on the exact cause of the declines in U.S. citizen and permanent resident applications and offers of admission, but several factors, including the continued uncertain national economy, declining state budgets and their effect on financial aid packages at public institutions, the weak job market, the availability of student loans, and many other factors, are likely at play. What the survey does reveal is the need to continue to track the application and enrollment patterns of domestic students and the importance of providing the pathways and support needed for these students to successfully enter graduate education.

By Nathan E. Bell, Director, Research and Policy Analysis