(Reprinted from the December 2011 issue of the CGS Communicator)

While the focus of the CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey is on the participation of international students in U.S. graduate schools, the 2011 Phase III survey also included a question that asked respondents to provide preliminary data on the number of U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate students in fall 2010 and fall 2011. An analysis of the findings from that question is presented below.

Methodology and Response Rate

The survey population for the 2011 CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey, Phase III: Final Offers of Admission and Enrollment consisted of all 494 U.S. colleges and universities that were members of CGS as of September 2011. A link to the survey instrument was e-mailed to the graduate dean (or equivalent) at each member institution on September 13, 2011, and responses were collected electronically through October 24, 2011.

A total of 232 institutions provided first-time graduate enrollment data for U.S. citizens and permanent residents for both fall 2010 and fall 2011, for a response rate of 47% on this question. For some institutions, the Phase III survey was administered before final first-time enrollment numbers were known, therefore these institutions provided preliminary figures as of the same date each year.

Of the 232 respondents to this survey question, 170 (73%) were public institutions, 61 (26%) were private, not-for-profit institutions, and one was a private, for-profit institution. By basic Carnegie classification, 166 (72%) of the respondents were doctoral institutions, 48 (21%) were master’s-focused institutions, and 18 (8%) were classified as specialized or baccalaureate institutions. By geographic region, 60 (26%) of the responding institutions are located in the Midwest, 44 (19%) in the Northeast, 39 (17%) in the West, and 89 (38%) in the South. Respondents to the question included 67 of the 100 largest institutions in terms of the number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents (National Science Foundation, 2011). The 232 responding institutions conferred about 39% of all graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents in the United States in 2008-09. Given this diverse set of survey respondents, it is likely that the preliminary data from these institutions reflect the current trends in first-time enrollment of U.S. citizens and permanent residents in graduate schools across the United States.

Findings

Overall, the institutions responding to the survey reported a 1% drop in first-time graduate enrollment of U.S. citizens and permanent residents between fall 2010 and fall 2011 (see Table 1). A slight majority of the respondents (128, or 55%) reported a decrease in first-time enrollment of U.S. citizens and permanent residents in 2011, with an average decline of 6% at these institutions. At the 102 institutions (44%) reporting an increase, the average gain was 8%. Two institutions (1%) reported no change in U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment between fall 2010 and fall 2011.

Public institutions and private, not-for-profit institutions both experienced a 1% decrease in U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment between fall 2010 and fall 2011. By basic Carnegie classification, the number of U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time enrollees dropped 1% at doctoral institutions and fell 2% at master’s-focused institutions.

U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment dropped in three of the four major regions of the United States in 2011. In the West and Northeast, the numbers of U.S. citizens and permanent residents enrolling in graduate school for the first time dropped by 2%, and in the Midwest the decrease was 1%, but U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment increased 1% in the South in 2011.

Smaller institutions in terms of the number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents were more likely to see a decrease in first-time graduate enrollment than larger institutions. In fall 2011, U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment fell 2% on average at the responding institutions that are not among the 100 largest in terms of the number of graduate degrees awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents, but remained flat on average at the responding institutions that are among the 100 largest.

Discussion

The preliminary data from the Phase III survey suggest that U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment fell in 2011 for the second year in a row. The 1% decrease from this year’s Phase III survey follows a 1.2% drop in fall 2010 that was documented in the most recent CGS/GRE Survey of Graduate Enrollment and Degrees (Bell, 2011b).

The 1% decrease in U.S. citizen and permanent resident first-time graduate enrollment in fall 2011 contrasts sharply with an 8% increase in international first-time graduate enrollment this fall (Bell, 2010a). Furthermore, this is the second year in a row in which domestic first-time graduate enrollment decreased while international first-time graduate enrollment increased. In fall 2010, international first-time graduate enrollment increased 4.7%, compared with the 1.2% drop for domestic students (Bell, 2011b).

While international first-time graduate enrollment appears to have outpaced domestic first-time graduate enrollment this year and last, this is in contrast to the trend that has been seen over the past decade. Between fall 2000 and fall 2010, first-time graduate enrollment of U.S. citizens and permanent residents increased by 4.4% annually on average, compared with a 2.3% average annual gain for international students (Bell, 2010b).

The erosion in first-time graduate enrollment that occurred in fall 2010 was caused in large part by declines in education, business, and public administration, particularly in part-time enrollment in these fields (Bell, 2010b). Since most graduate students in these fields are self-funded or employer-funded, it is likely that the current economic situation and anemic recovery of the job market are at the root of the decline. It is possible that prospective students in these broad fields remain hesitant to take on debt or to leave jobs for graduate school, that some employers have reduced or eliminated educational benefits for their employees, and that cuts in the primary and secondary teaching workforce in some states have left some teachers unemployed and hesitant to pursue more schooling, but the preliminary data on U.S. citizens and permanent residents from the 2011 Phase III survey do not provide the level of detail needed to determine the cause of this year’s decline. The more robust 2011 CGS/GRE Survey of Graduate Enrollment and Degrees, to be released next fall, will document the final change in first-time graduate enrollment for fall 2011.

By Nathan E. Bell, Director, Research and Policy Analysis